Think tank sees UK growing at fastest pace in three years

Think tank NIESR has estimated that UK GDP grew by 0.9 per cent in the three months to August, up from an estimate of 0.7 per cent growth in the three months to July.

The latest time NIESR estimated growth this fast was in July 2010, when it was also at 0.9 per cent.

Our estimates suggest the level of GDP is now 2.7 per cent lower than the peak of January 2008.

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Our track record in producing early estimates of GDP suggests that our projection for the most recent three-month period has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.238% point (for the full sample period 1999Q3-2012Q4) when compared to the first estimate produced by the ONS.

NIESR's calculations suggest that government services shrank by 0.4 per cent on the three month period ending in July, with industry up 6.1 per cent, agriculture 7.2 per cent and construction 6.1 per cent.