A string of solid data points for the UK have come to an end, as the economy's winning streak goes cold. Industrial production, manufacturing production and trade data have all been disappointing.
The pound has taken a slide against the dollar on the bad news.
UK industrial output has been completely flat in July, despite expectations of a rise of 0.1 per cent. That comes after 1.3 per cent growth last month (revised up from 1.1 per cent).
Manufacturing production also came in lower than expected, at 0.2 per cent versus estimates of 0.3 growth. Last month the manufacturing sector saw production increase by 2.0 per cent (revised up from 1.9 per cent).
No no no, don't look at the actual data. Look at the record high diffusion indices.— Dick Darlington (@Darlington_Dick) September 6, 2013
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist, IHS Global Insight:
Following a recent stream of good news on the UK economy, the latest trade data and, to a much lesser extent, industrial production figures data temper some of the optimism. While GDP growth in the third quarter still seems likely to exceed the 0.7% quarter achieved in the second quarter, we suspect it will come in around 0.8-0.9% rather than reach or even exceed 1.0% quarter-on-quarter as had been starting to look very possible.
Trade data has also taken a hit, as exports to non-EU countries have fallen by over 16 per cent in July. The largest monthly decline since January 2009.
Steve Collins, global head of dealing at London & Capital Asset Management:
That's a really nasty number indeed because a lot of the UK's Q2 growth came from net exports. If that is going into reverse then we could see a bit of a bum number for Q3.