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WILL WE SEE THIRD QUARTER GDP FIGURES REVISED UPWARDS?

<strong>RICHARD MCGUIRE RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</strong><br />While preliminary estimates of output are notoriously prone to revision, the clear indication here that the UK remains mired in an unprecedented recession provides a compelling argument in favour of the Bank opting for a precautionary increase in the QE limit come 5 November. <br /><br /><strong>PHILIP SHAW INVESTEC<br /></strong>The continued contraction of the service sector is totally at odds with more buoyant surveys and it is possible that the figures are revised upwards at some point. We can but wait and in the meantime it looks as though the UK will be the last of the major economies to recover.<br /><br /><strong>MICHAEL SAUNDERS CITIGROUP<br /></strong>The ONS estimates third quarter industrial production fell 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter even though industrial production in July-August was just 0.5 per cent below the average. Previous GDP figures have tended to be revised up more than down and the same may well apply here.<br />