views

WHEN DO YOU EXPECT THE UK ECONOMY TO STOP CONTRACTING?

<strong>MICHAEL SAUNDERS </strong> CITIGROUP<br />Fourth quarter of 2009. A combination of reduced destocking, an improvement in financial conditions and signs that consumption and investment may become less weak. The conditions for a recession to end are not yet in place: we&rsquo;re not there yet, but we&rsquo;re on the way. <br /><br /><strong>JAMES KNIGHTLEY </strong> ING<br />Within three months. Over the last couple of months the data has generally surprised to the upside and PMI forecasts are pretty much consistent with flat GDP. But I have doubts about the sustainability of this &ndash; we are still seeing falling profits growth and surging unemployment. <br /><br /><strong>JAMIE DANNHAUSER </strong>LOMBARD STREET RESEARCH<br />Third quarter of 2009. Our view is that you might get a slightly better second and third quarter this year but the structural changes that the UK economy is undergoing will mean a slower and weaker recovery. The output gap will also continue to expand until the second half of 2010.