MELISSA KIDD | LOMBARD STREET RESEARCH
Our central forecast for GDP growth in 2010 is 1.4 per cent. We expect quite a strong fourth quarter of 2009 as consumers bring forward spending ahead of the VAT increase. But we then see subdued growth through much of 2010 with interest rates hitting 1.5 per cent by the end of the year.
PHILIP SHAW | INVESTEC
We think the economy was growing in the second half of 2009 and we expect it to continue expanding in 2010. But we don’t forecast a V-shaped recovery – it’s impossible to have a strong rebound without a strong household sector. Fiscal tightening and political uncertainty will also be risks to the recovery.
JAMES KNIGHTLEY | ING
I’m more pessimistic about the UK economy again. Economic growth will undershoot both the Treasury’s and the Bank of England’s predictions. Tightening of fiscal policy next year might mean the Bank puts off hikes but we see two per cent by the end of 2010, although this might be too bullish.