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WHAT DO YOU EXPECT THE PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDICES TO SHOW?

<strong>PHILIP SHAW INVESTEC<br /></strong>Recent trends in the services PMI have been highly encouraging in recent months. The problem is that this revival is still not fully reflected in the official data, which showed the service sector contracting by 0.6 per cent over the second quarter. The MPC is likely to place some weight on the readings in its monetary policy deliberations next week.<br /><strong><br />HOWARD ARCHER IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT</strong><br />The July purchasing managers' surveys will be closely scanned for an idea of how the economy is shaping up in the third quarter, following a disappointingly sharp GDP contraction of 0.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. We expect the manufacturing survey to deteriorate compared to June, in light of recent data from the Confederation of British Industry.<br /><strong><br />JONATHAN LOYNES CAPITAL ECONOMICS<br /></strong>July&rsquo;s CIPS/Markit report on services could pour more cold water on the recent optimism about the green shoots of recovery. While June&rsquo;s drop in the headline business activity index &ndash; the first in seven months &ndash; could just be a temporary pause, activity has often failed to live up to businesses&rsquo; hopes in previous upturns.