views

STRESSED OUT

<strong>STRESS TEST MODEL:</strong><br />Peak to trough fall in GDP of 6%<br /><strong>REALITY:</strong><br />GDP has now declined 4.1% from its peak in the first quarter of 2008<br /><br /><strong>STRESS TEST MODEL: </strong><br />Unemployment will rise to just over 12%<br /><strong>REALITY:</strong><br />Unemployment is currently 7.1% for the three months to March 2009<br /><br /><strong>STRESS TEST MODEL: </strong><br />House prices will fall 50% to peak to trough<br /><strong>REALITY:</strong><br />According to the Halifax, house prices are down 22% from <br />their August 2007 peak<br /><br /><strong>STRESS TEST MODEL: </strong><br />Commercial property prices will fall 60% to peak to trough<br /><strong>REALITY:</strong><br />According to Investment Property Databank, UK commercial property prices are down 42.7% in April from their June 2007 peak