Asked to rate Europe’s weaker economies on a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being close to a severe financial crisis), the panel gave Spain a score of 2.5. Only Greece, which scored 1.1 is closer, with Portugal on 3.1, Italy on 3.9 and Ireland on 4.4.
But despite its proximity to a crisis, the majority of panellists don’t think a Spanish exit from the Eurozone is imminent. A plurality of 35 per cent said it would never leave; nine per cent said it would leave in five or more years; and 16 per cent said it would be two years. A fifth of panellists (20 per cent) said it would leave in a year while 11 per cent thought it would be a matter of months. Eight per cent did not know.
The panel, recruited in association with PoliticsHome, gave short shrift to a mooted €19bn bailout of Spanish bank Bankia. Three quarters were sceptical of its effectiveness, with just 13 per cent confident.