OECD: UK economy not on its way into triple-dip recession

Ben Southwood
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UK GROWTH is solidifying, not falling away, according to widely regarded data out yesterday.

The UK’s composite leading indicator (CLI) edged up to 100.7 in November, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revealed, from 100.5 in October – indicating “growth firming”.

CLIs “tend to precede turning points in economic activity by approximately six months,” the OECD says.

This monthly increase of 0.2 per cent caps off five straight months of improvement and a yearly increase of 1.5 per cent that brought the indicator over the long term average of 100.

This UK improvement was echoed by higher CLIs in the US, China, India, and Japan, along with promising Eurozone figures that the OECD believes suggest “stabilising growth”.

The positive findings will give chancellor George Osborne a lift, as a raft of recent releases suggest the UK may return to recession. But even if the economy does not shrink for two successive quarters analysts believe at least one quarter of GDP decline is highly likely.