OECD says UK growth will stall during the coming six months

Ben Southwood
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THE STEADY improvement in UK growth prospects seen since the country fell into a double-dip recession stalled in January, according to figures out yesterday.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said its composite leading indicator, which predicts economic conditions in six months’ time, stayed almost completely flat during the month.

This comes after steady increases in the indicator since the first months of 2012, when the UK fell into a second recession, implying that growth will pick up but then stall in the middle of 2013.

IHS Global Insight’s Howard Archer said: “The OECD leading indicator reinforces our suspicion that while the UK should be able to grow through 2013, activity will be muted and fragile for some time to come with relapses remaining a very real risk.”

Over the year, the UK was still the most improved country on the measure, up 1.42 per cent compared to a fall of 0.18 per cent across the Eurozone, a drop of 1.29 per cent in China, and a gain of 0.53 per cent for the US. But in the last month the largest gain went to Germany, where growth was set to pick up, the OECD said, despite the Eurozone slump.