OECD economists predict UK to show firmer growth in 2013

Ben Southwood
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UK GROWTH is set to be firmer, if not rapid, in 2013, according to data out yesterday.

The UK’s composite leading indicator, which is supposed to signpost turning points in economic cycles, saw another month of slight improvement, increasing from 100.3 in September to 100.5 in October.

This 0.23 per cent increase follows on the heels of a cumulative 0.69 per cent increase spread over the past four months, and a total 1.14 per cent increase over the year, bringing the indicator further above its long run average of 100.

The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which prepares the data, said these movements amount to a firming of UK economic growth.

Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said the data “supports hopes that the UK can achieve gradually improving growth in 2013,” but warned that other data painted a more gloomy picture of the UK’s economic prospects.

And he said the fourth quarter of 2012 was “more than likely” to see a return to declining GDP.

The organisation said that 0.14 per cent growth in the index for the whole OECD area, over the year, represented stabilising growth across the wealthy countries of the world.