THE first three horses to immediately catch my eye in tomorrow’s Racing Post Chase were Nacarat, Tatenen and FISTRAL BEACH.
The first named of the trio finished second in this race 12 months ago, having won it back in 2009, while Tatenen is showing signs of a return to the form that saw him sent off favourite for the Arkle Chase a few seasons ago.
Yet, the combination of trip, ground and weight means that I’m prepared to swerve those two in favour of Fistral Beach, although the trends suggest
that shouldering a burden should be no problem.
According to www.racingtrendsrevealed.co.uk, 10 of the last 13 winners of the race have remarkably carried 10st 13lb or more.
However, Nacarat is set to lug 11st 12lb tomorrow and he would have been beaten further by Razor Royale last year if Nigel Twiston-Davies’ runner hadn’t ploughed through the last. I’m also slightly concerned about the form of his trainer who has had a few horses disappoint in recent weeks.
As for Tatenen, who looked back to his best at Ascot last time, he is a really interesting each-way proposition at around 14/1 with Victor Chandler and would be half his current price if still in the hands of Paul Nicholls.
The worry with him is that I’m not really sure he’s ideally suited to three miles and his legs may turn to jelly late on.
Fistral Beach will be bidding to make amends for 12 months ago when he was sent off favourite for this race and unseated early on.
He looks a progressive eight-year-old who had a wind operation over the summer and won nicely over a shorter trip at Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance. At around 11/2 he is a rock-solid each-way proposition and has AP McCoy in the saddle looking for his third win in this race in six seasons.
This race tends to go to one of those towards the head of the market, but I wouldn’t rule out Howard Johnson’s DOOR BOY each-way at a massive 25/1. He had some decent form over hurdles and he could have a chance of sneaking into a place off his feather weight.
The totesport.com Eider Chase is always one of the most difficult handicaps of the season and the 12-year-old Comply Or Die will be attempting to win the race for a second time. He was successful in 2008 before going on to win the Grand National, but he’s an old boy now and may be susceptible to one of the younger improvers.
Charlie Longsdon has his string in fine fettle and this has been the target for MINELLA BOYS since his brave second to West End Rocker at Warwick last month.
He was staying on at the death that day which indicates that he will relish this marathon slog.
He should be a good each-way price and the danger could be the Victor Dartnall-trained Giles Cross who ran a stormer to finish second to Synchronised in the Welsh National.
FISTRAL BEACH e/w 3.00pm Kempton (tomorrow)
DOOR BOY e/w 3.00pm Kempton (tomorrow)
MINELLA BOYS e/w 3.15pm Newcastle (tomorrow)