he stay, or won’t he stay? That is the question. Dawn Approach has already proven himself to be a top class racehorse, but he will be verging on greatness if he can win tomorrow’s Investec Derby.
However, there are big stamina concerns on the dam’s side of his pedigree and his first four wins all came over five or six furlongs. His father New Approach, of course, won this race in 2008, yet he had much stouter staying credentials.
The positive for Dawn Approach fans is that he settles wonderfully well, unlike his dad, and that calmness could help him get home. Every racing pundit out there seems to be in agreement that if Jim Bolger’s colt stays, he wins. I agree with that, and I also think he will stay.
Put simply, he’s the best horse in the race and I expect his class to get him through the additional four furlongs.
Aidan O’Brien is set to run five against him and that normally means he doesn’t have an outstanding contender. Battle Of Marengo is solid if unspectacular and a greater danger to Bolger’s stable star could be Rule The World, who is an out and out stayer.
The Ballydoyle battalion will be out to make sure this is a severe test and Rule The World could be the one to pick up the pieces. He may end up being more of a St Leger type, but I can see him running a big race tomorrow.
I’ll be giving my full thoughts on the Investec Derby in tomorrow’s special City A.M. Derby edition.