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HOW MUCH WEIGHT SHOULD WE PLACE ON TOMORROW’S GDP FIGURE?

DAVID PAGE | INVESTEC
Sharp changes in the economy have led to significant deviation between the official series and anecdotal evidence. We continue to attach weight to the more buoyant assessments from the CBI and the PMI surveys. There is plenty of room for surprises at this first estimate.

JAMES KNIGHTLEY | ING
At this stage we will only get an industry breakdown, but based on lead data, such as the PMI surveys, it should come in close to 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter. But with significant fiscal policy tightening set to intensify over the next two years a continuation of this pace will be difficult.

MICHAEL SAUNDERS | CITIGROUP
We expect these data to show GDP growing again by 0.6 per cent. Partial data show industrial production and services output rising slightly, but there is considerable uncertainty as to what the ONS will assume for construction output and general economic activity in December.