EUROPE is in crisis and the UK in recession, but top analysts at Goldman Sachs have set aside those distractions to focus on the really big story of the year – the London Olympics.
British athletes should bring home a huge 30 gold medals, up from 19 in 2008, according to the economists’ forecast. They studied factors influencing results at the previous 10 Games and found Britain should come third in the rankings.
There is some uncertainty around that forecast but, assuming a normal distribution, the statisticians are 95 per cent sure the UK will gain between 28 and 33 gold medals, and a total of between 61 and 70 medals.
The backing of the home crowd is one advantage, giving a 54 per cent boost to the host nation. But the UK also benefits from its status as a rich country, a history of political stability and high levels of technology.