Goldman is gloomy about the European economy but thinks oil is on the up

GOLDMAN Sachs reckons a bet against European high-yield corporate debt is the most promising trade for 2012, according to a research note out yesterday.

The banking giant said if Europe sinks into recession, as it expects, then high-yield firms will come under “considerable pressure”.

Goldman is also gloomy about German bunds, telling traders to bet on yields rising to 2.8 per cent, but it thinks long bets on the euro and the Swiss franc promise some good returns.

For the global economy, Goldman analysts have cut their 2012 growth forecasts from 3.4 per cent to 3.2 per cent to reflect the worsening debt crisis in Europe.

Traders should also bet long on Canadian equities versus Japanese markets, according to Goldman, and speculate on the price of Brent oil rising next year.

Commodities analyst Jeff Currie said Brent could rise to $127.50 a barrel by the end of next year, from $111 yesterday. He also reckons the oil benchmark could reach $135 a barrel in 2013, which would be the highest level since 2008.

The bank is keeping its “overweight” rating on commodities for the coming year, predicting rises of up to 15 per cent over the year due to potential supply shortages and the prospect of economic growth outside the trouble-spots of the Eurozone.

It said that during 2008, commodities tended to make gains until the financial crisis tipped into a global recession.

Goldman Sachs is also one of the few banks expecting the price of UK gas to soar next year, despite a sharp drop in value since August. Its analysts also expect the price of copper to rally.