My pick: Long dollar-Swiss franc; long euro-Swiss franc; short Aussie-Kiwi Expertise: Fundamental analysis with risk management

Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

Risk trends are still not consistent for capital and forex markets and because of end-of-year liquidity issues, I‘m hesitant to take positions requiring a meaningful trend to hit targets. An exception is dollar-Swiss franc, which has recently broke above a meaningful range high and can find SNB intervention and EU troubles as support. The same could be said of a euro-Swiss franc break of SFr1.2500. I remain ready for Aussie dollar-Kiwi dollar, but the entry has moved up to NZ$1.3125.


My pick: Buy euro-Australian dollar on dips towards Au$1.3000 Expertise: Technical analysis

Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

Although the trend in this market has been intensely bearish over several months and the cross trades at over 20-year lows, I see the strong potential for the formation of a major base at current levels and significant bullish reversal over the coming months. This is a market that has dropped 80 big figures since 2008 and technical studies warn of exhaustion. In recent weeks, dips have been very well supported towards Au$1.3 and we expect to see the same type of price action in the future.


My pick: Remain short euro-dollar

Expertise: Global macro

Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months

I re-entered short at $1.3526 on 9 November expecting the Eurozone debt crisis to continue to spread, aiming for targets at $1.3141 and $1.2836. Last week’s summit proved to be a dud, as expected, and prices have now taken out the 25 November low at $1.3211 – opening the door for a move to my first target at $1.3144. A daily close below this level will prompt me to trail my stop-loss to break-even ($1.3526) from $1.3882 currently, aiming for the more ambitious objective at $1.2836.