My pick: Long dollar-Canadian dollar, short sterling-dollar
Expertise: Fundamental analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

We witnessed an incredible swing in risk trends preventing both my sterling-yen and Aussie-dollar setups from triggering. The dollar-Canadian dollar managed to hit the Ca$0.9970 short, but it was best to bail with a small take. Volatility and event risk is a big threat this week. I’m looking for a short-term long dollar-Canadian dollar above Ca$1.0025 if risk aversion sets in. There are a lot of options for that scenario, including sterling-dollar reversing trend below $1.5950. It’s high risk though.


My pick: Sell Australian dollar-dollar at $1.0310
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

We continue to classify the latest market rally as corrective, with the move putting in a lower top below the September high. The market is now rolling back over to keep the downtrend intact and open a bearish resumption. While selling rallies is probably too aggressive, we recommend being slightly more cautious and looking for confirmation on a break back below $1.0315. Look for the break below $1.0315 to then expose a fresh drop back towards $0.9385. Only a sustained break back above $1.0750 would negate.


My pick: Stay short euro-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months

I sold euro-dollar at $1.4328 on 29 July. Prices soared last week in the wake of the EU debt crisis summit, taking out my revised stop-loss at $1.3975 for a small profit. With the euphoria fading and the many gaps in the now third “comprehensive” crisis containment plan emerging, euro is on the defensive once again. I will look for a compelling new entry point to re-establish the position in the days ahead. Ideally on a bounce from support at $1.3707 back toward the $1.39 figure.