My pick: Scalp dollar-yen and short Kiwi dollar-dollar
Expertise: Fundamental analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

I had a mixed bag last week with my short euro-sterling hitting its stop at its new resistance, while sterling-dollar hit its initial target. We are seeing the dominant risk trend waver to start the week, so consistency is difficult to gauge. I don’t like a resumption of risk trend fundamentally, but if yield appetite does drop, I’d like Kiwi dollar-dollar below $0.7900 and then $0.7500. A scalping effort on dollar-yen (with a long bias) looks to avoid bigger sentiment trends.


My pick: Sell euro-sterling
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

The market that has been moving lower since the 2008 record highs and any rallies continue to be well capped, with the formation of lower top after lower top. As such, the latest topside failure on the euro-sterling daily chart by £0.8800 suggests that another lower top is now in the process of carving, and we look for fresh downside back towards the £0.8500 area over the coming days. Ultimately, only back above £0.8800 would negate outlook and force rethink.


My pick: Stay short euro-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months

I sold euro-dollar at $1.4328 on 29 July expecting a deepening EU debt crisis to hurt the euro, while a slowing global recovery boosts safe-haven demand for the dollar. The single currency rebounded amid a flurry of rhetoric, but German candor cut the recovery short after Chancellor Merkel dismissed hopes for an immediate fix as a “dream”. I am expecting selling pressure to resume from here and continue to look for an objective of $1.30 in the coming weeks.