My pick: Long dollar-yen and sterling-Swissie; short Aussie-kiwi
Expertise: Fundamental/technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: One day to one week

Risk aversion was strong in the past few weeks, although euro-dollar didn’t participate, given the shared troubles of both economies. Conditions have settled in the past few active trading days but underlying volatility is still exceptionally high. I’m watching for breakout scenarios: dollar-yen may finally break ¥77.10; look to go long above ¥77.25. Aussie-kiwi is at the top of its descending channel at NZ$1.2625: short from NZ$1.2625. Sterling-Swissie is weighing the SFr1.30 level; long above SFr1.3050.


My pick: Sell Australian dollar-US dollar at $1.0650
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: One week to six months

The pair is retracing a major drop off from post-float record highs at $1.1080. The greater risk now is for gains towards a major confluence of resistance in the mid-$1.0600’s, from the 20/50/100-day simple moving averages and the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement off the $1.1080-$0.9925 move. However, gains beyond $1.0650 should be hard to come by. Our strategy is to look to sell on a rally up towards $1.0650 in anticipation of a major lower top below $1.1080. Strategy: sell $1.0650 for $0.9650 objective; stop-loss at $1.1150.


My pick: Stay short euro-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: One week to six months

I sold euro-dollar three weeks ago at $1.4328, expecting escalation in the EU debt crisis to be compounded by a downward revision in investors’ expectations of global economic growth, setting off risk aversion and driving the US dollar higher on safe-haven demand. While I didn’t foresee the degree of volatility that ensued, the trajectory seems to be working and I remain short, targeting a close below $1.3975. A stop-loss will be triggered on a daily close above $1.4535.