My pick: Short Kiwi dollar-US dollar at $0.7735
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 to 6 weeks
Rallies continue to be very well capped above $0.7800 and the market has once again stalled out above the figure in favor of yet another bearish reversal. From here, we see risks for additional declines towards $0.7525 over the coming sessions, with any intraday rallies expected to be well capped ahead of $0.7750 on a close basis. Below $0.7525 should accelerate declines and open the door for deeper setbacks.
My pick: Short euro-US dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months
The recent rally in EURUSD looks corrective, with prices retesting support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line set from the swing low in June. The 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the downswing from December’s swing high ($1.3741) reinforces the upside barrier. A pair of Doji candles below this juncture points to indecision. I will look for a corrective bounce toward $1.3730 to look for an attractive opportunity to enter short, initially targeting the $1.30 figure with a stop on a daily close above $1.3860.
My pick: Long dollar-yen at ¥82.75. Short euro-kiwi dollar at NZ$1.7525
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis and risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
My sterling-yen short from last week would have come within a stone’s throw of hitting its target; but was instead stopped out; while the Australian dollar-US dollar short never materialised. Trading conditions may struggle for trends in the week ahead; but there is opportunity out there. I like a shorter-term US dollar-yen breakout with a 100 point buffer; while a euro-New Zealand dollar reversal below NZ$1.7525 can handle a 125-point stop and first target.