My pick: Short euro-US dollar (pending market moves)
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week-6 months

Euro-US dollar has put in a bearish dark cloud cover candlestick formation following a test of resistance at the $1.38 figure, hinting that a turn lower may be ahead. Confirmation is required on a break below the sharply upward, slowing trend line now at $1.3687. I look for a daily close below here to sell, initially targeting the $1.33 figure. Alternatively, a daily close above the 4 October high at $1.3811 would relieve bearish pressure and open the door for further gains.


My pick: Short euro-US dollar below $1.36 pending market moves
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day-1 week

My long euro-Japanese yen breakout scenario from last week was met and I took a very small position in recognition of the volatility potential on the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank rate decisions. On a different tack, I think the euro’s run against the dollar is reaching an extreme on a speculative versus fundamental perspective. I will wait for confirmation of a break below $1.36 for the channel give and look for fundamental confirmation.


My pick: Buy US dollar-Swiss franc at SFr0.9885
Expertise: Classic technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 week-6 months

Setbacks have finally stalled out ahead of the critical record lows from 2008 by SFr0.9645 with the market finding a bottom for now in the 0.9700s ahead of the latest minor bounce. Short and medium-term studies are looking stretched and longer-term cyclical studies warn of a major bottom. This sets up the potential for a weekly reversal, with a break and close back above SFr0.9880 to confirm bias and likely accelerate gains. Target SFr1.0500 with a stop at SFr0.9585.