Experts predict global growth is set to return in six months

Ben Southwood
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GLOBAL growth will return with a bang over the next six months, driven by emerging markets, according to a poll of experts out yesterday.

The Ifo expectations index soared from 87.7 in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 107 in the first quarter of 2013, the highest result for seven quarters, and back to a position suggesting things would be significantly better in six months time.

Ifo’s climate indicator also climbed significantly, from 82.4 to 94.1, although not quite to the long term average of 96 nor the 100 level that corresponds to the economic climate in 2005.

These boosts came mainly from Asia, where worries of an emerging market slowdown seemed to have disappeared. The Asian climate indicator rocketed from 81.6 in the final three months of last year to 97.4 this quarter.

But North America and Western Europe also enjoyed climbing indices, with respective jumps of 5.9 and 11.1.

“After six months of stagnation, the prospects for the world economy seem to be brightening,” said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn.