ECONOMISTS’ VIEWS: WHAT DO YOU EXPECT FROM FOURTH-QUARTER GDP?

 
Julian Harris
Follow Julian
GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
"We expect the headline rate to be 0.6 per cent quarter on quarter, but there are downside risks. PMI surveys weakened in December, but on average the whole economy PMI is around the same in quarter four as it was in quarter three. Overall for the year it looks like growth was around 1.7 per cent. The recovery is less than half way through."

IAN STEWART | DELOITTE
"Slower growth in construction and service output, exacerbated by bad weather, is likely to see growth slow to 0.5 per cent after pretty strong growth in the previous quarters. That said, manufacturing looks in great shape. GDP data are choppy and prone to revision. There will be bumps along the way, but we think this will be a sustained recovery."

PETER SPENCER | ERNST AND YOUNG ITEM CLUB
"Growth should come in around 0.4 per cent, but for 2011 we are above forecast, expecting a 2.3 per cent expansion. On the optimistic side, business is buoyant and surveys are confident. I expect trade to start making a positive contribution to GDP. Exports to emerging “BRIC” economies are still low but are growing like the clappers."