ECONOMISTS’ VIEWS: HAS CHINA’S ECONOMY AVOIDED A HARD LANDING?

 
Tim Wallace
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QINWEI WANG | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
At 51.1, this month’s PMI estimate is very strong. There are risks ahead, however - Eurozone figures are very disappointing. Furthermore, China’s PMI may reflect output rising simply to replenish and increase inventories, which have been very low recently, rather than signaling strong demand growth.

CHRIS SCICLUNA | DAIWA CAPITAL MARKETS
Having recently indicated contraction, the turnaround in October’s flash PMI offers cause for optimism, suggesting the particularly soft patch for the sector has come to an end. Policy tightening has produced intended results, such as slowing fixed investment, while consumption growth remains stable.

VICTORIA CADMAN | INVESTEC
The manufacturing PMI adds weight to our view that fears of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth are overdone. Official data confirms this with industrial output expanding 13.8 per cent on the year in September. The continued expansion should provide some well needed support for global growth.