ECONOMIST VIEWS: HOW SOON WILL THE BANK OF ENGLAND BE ABLE TO NORMALISE MONETARY POLICY?

PETER DIXON | COMMERZBANK
"The tightness of the fiscal stance planned for 2011 suggests the Bank cannot afford to ignore it when setting rates. Global conditions are likely to remain difficult, with consequences for the UK. We think the Bank will be forced to follow the trend by holding rates to the end of next year."

MICHAEL SAUNDERS | CITIGROUP
"The MPC is likely to keep rates on hold, with no further QE, for some time. But, our base case is that the MPC’s next move will be tightening not loosening, although not until around the middle of next year. It is tempting to stress uncertainties, but this month’s MPC decision really is not a close call."

PHILIP SHAW | INVESTEC
"If our core view on the economy is correct and activity gradually strengthens over the medium term, we can see the MPC beginning to raise the Bank rate towards the middle of next year. But if the recovery begins to stutter, rates could stay on hold for most or all of next year, with additional quantitative easing being thrown at the economy in the meantime."