Doubts about the pace of the recovery will soon surface

After Friday&rsquo;s weaker-than-expected US jobs data and ensuing sell-off in stock markets, doubts are creeping back in as to whether the global economic recovery can be sustained, and the risk of a double-dip recession, although low, is rising. There is a heavy dose of economic data and central bank policy announcements on the calendar this week which could prove pivotal for traders.<br /><br />Saturday&rsquo;s Irish &ldquo;yes&rdquo; vote on the EU Treaty of Lisbon was already pretty much priced in to the currency markets, so there is probably only limited upside reacton for the Euro this morning, although last-minute polls suggested the result was finely balanced. The Irish &ldquo;No&rdquo; vote in 2008 interestingly accounted for roughly a 200 pip slide in Euro/US Dollar but the ratification this time round is likely to get a more subdued reception.<br /><br />Sticking with the Eurozone, due for release this morning we have PMI services &ndash; a gauge for the overall perfomance of the service sector &ndash; and retail sales. On Thursday we have Eurozone GDP and the ECB interest rate meeting, at which rates are expected to remain at one per cent.<br /><br />Over to the UK, and here the main event of the week is the Bank of England rates meeting on Thursday. Rates are expected to be kept at 0.50 per cent but the market-moving aspect of the announcement will be the accompanying policy statement, which should indicate whether the Bank sees the need to retain the neutral policy on quantitative easing. <br /><br />UK consumer confidence data is out tomorrow which could well see a big improvement after the GfK NOP survey last week showed confidence in September jumped the most in 14 years.<br /><br />From the States, today&rsquo;s ISM non-manufacturing index is forecast to show an increase from 48.4 to 50. Anything over 50 would represent a highly significant expansion in business activity and would likely see a strong positive reaction by US stocks and the dollar.<br /><br />Despite the FTSE recording its best quarterly performance ever of over 20 per cent in September, October has seen a much more inauspicious start, with the UK index closing below 5,000 on Friday thanks to a combination of profit-taking and the poor non-farm payrolls number.<br /><br />GFT sees the FTSE making a mildly positive start to the week, expecting traders to buy into the dip.<br /><br />The opening call of 4,998 &ndash; 5,004 suggests the index will open up around 13 points and should creep back over the 5,000 level. For the German and French stock markets it&rsquo;s much harder to call and the markets are likely to open virtually unchanged from the Friday closing levels of 5,467 and 3,649 respectively.<br /><br />Martin Slaney is head of derivatives at GFT Global Markets