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City: Hung house is most likely result

THE City believes a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party is the most likely election result.

A staggering 58.3 per cent of the City A.M./PHI panel believe there will be a Tory minority after the votes are counted.

A Tory overall majority came second in the poll, with 37.5 per cent of the votes. The result was a disaster for Labour, with just 0.2 per cent believing the party will win an outright majority and a measly three per cent confident it will be the biggest party in a hung parliament.

No voters believe the Lib Dems can pull off an audacious outright victory. One per cent think they can be the biggest party with no outright winner.

We also asked the City panel, chosen with Politics Home to represent a cross-section of London’s business community, to predict how many seats each party would win. The Tories beat most predictions, racking up 304 of the 650 seats, giving them a minority victory. They would need 326 seats to win a majority.

Labour finished below par on 209 seats, with the Lib Dems trailing on just 100.

•politicshome.com interviewed 410 people yesterday

PANELLIST COMMENTS
• I think there will be a last minute further swing to the Tories as people start to realise that, whilst Clegg is a nice guy, their policies aren't those of a party that has any experience of being in power. I think Brown would have a much better life on the after-dinner circuit.

• We have seen endless speculation about which party the Lib Dems will align with. Why not a Tory-Lab government as sometimes occurs in Germany?

• Once it comes to Thursday, people will not vote for an unstable parliament. They will vote for a conservative majority. This will be more apparent in the marginals.

• I think at the end of the day people will vote tactically to ensure that we do not have another term involving a Labour government.

• Hung parliaments and coalitions only work when there is a common purpose such as in WW2 . It would be nice to think that we could find some “blitz spirit” and pull together to get the country out of the current mess. Sadly I fear that is wishful thinking.

• For the few seconds voters are stood inside the polling booths, in spite of all the media razzmatazz, political spin and personality analysis, they will revert to what they know and feels comfortable.

• Gordon Brown will hang on in Number 10 until Monday, but eventually the removal men will turn up. Lib Dems will get the income tax changes they want in the first Budget but not PR and no seat in the cabinet.

• I think that Nats in Scotland may further scupper Labour and that minority parties may do better than anticipated.