CITY A.M. | SHADOW MPC STICKS AT 6-3 AGAINST RAISING RATES

ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.

“Quarter-point rise. Consumer price inflation is still expected to touch five per cent in the coming months, while the UK has recovered reasonably from the winter freeze. A gradual normalisation is required.”

SIMON WARD | HENDERSON

“Half-point rise. February’s inflation report signalled that rate hikes would be necessary to return inflation to target; the outlook has, overall, deteriorated since then, partly reflecting a three per cent slump in sterling.”

GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK

“Rise 0.25 per cent. While activity growth and inflation have moderated, policy remains exceptionally loose. Modestly higher interest rates now may limit the need for sharper upward moves in the future.”

GRAEME LEACH | INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS

“The source of inflationary pressure in the UK is either fiscal (higher VAT) or global and so a rate rise would do little to alleviate this. The elephant at the table against a rate rise remains weak broad money supply. Hold.”

VICKY REDWOOD | CAPITAL ECONOMICS

“I would leave interest rates on hold to give the recovery a chance of getting going again. After all, the high rates of inflation are still having few second-round effects on pay growth or inflation expectations.”

TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS TSB

“Hold rates. UK is still experiencing a negative output gap, with wage inflation remaining low despite high price inflation. Monetary policy has to offset fiscal tightening, as household debt levels are still very high.”

HOWARD ARCHER | IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT

“Hold rates. The tepid first-quarter GDP rebound and a struggling consumer argue against a near-term rate hike. Meanwhile, pay remains muted and we still see little risk of a damaging wage-price spiral developing.”

JAMIE DANNHAUSER | LOMBARD STREET RESEARCH

“The economy was stronger in quarter one than the 0.5 per cent figure suggests. However, it is not clear the recovery is sufficiently entrenched to warrant a rate hike yet. The first move should come before the autumn.”

VICKY PRYCE | FTI CONSULTING

“Hold, even though Sentance won’t have seen a rate rise throughout his tenure. March’s inflation was better than expected and preliminary GDP figures show a stagnant economy, with consumers losing confidence.”