CITY A.M. | SHADOW MPC REMAINS SPLIT OVER RATE RISES

ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.
“Quarter point rise. While not sensational, the business surveys indicate a return to growth for 2011. Rates should be gradually normalised to signal that the Bank is serious about fighting spiralling inflation.”

SIMON WARD | HENDERSON
“Half-point rise. The MPC’s forecast shows inflation 0.5 per cent above target in two years’ time. The economy is rebounding strongly in early 2011, wage settlements have firmed and broad money is growing faster.”

GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
“My view is for no change. While inflation has been well above target, the stalled recovery at the end of 2010 suggests it would be prudent to await the outcome of current quarter growth before raising rates.”

MICHAEL SAUNDERS | CITIGROUP
“Rates are likely to be hiked soon, prompted by rising inflation, elevated inflation expectations, the pick up in pay deals and signs that the economy returned to growth in the first quarter of the year.”

VICKY REDWOOD | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“Leave interest rates on hold. The factors driving up inflation remain temporary. Rising oil prices add to the headwinds facing the economic recovery and increases the chances inflation will fall sharply further ahead.”

TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS TSB
“Price inflation is well above target but there’s little risk of a wage-price spiral. Deflationary forces are building. Bank rate must rise this year, but not until the second-half when some of the uncertainties abate.”

HOWARD ARCHER | IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
“Hold rates. Weakening consumer spending and faltering service activity fuels concern over the economy’s underlying strength while current elevated oil prices will hamper economic activity. Caution is justified.”

JAMIE DANNHAUSER | LOMBARD STREET RESEARCH
“We side with the governor Mervyn King in the UK inflation debate. While risks are to the upside, we expect consumer price index inflation to fall below target in 2012. The time has not yet come to raise rates.”

GRAEME LEACH | IOD
“I would maintain the base rate of interest and leave quantitative easing unchanged. Money supply growth is too weak to contemplate higher base rates at present.”