CITY A.M. | SHADOW MPC

ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.
“Hold rates. Strong survey data shows the economy has been recovering through the first quarter, firmly eliminating any need for more easing. Indeed, markets are already providing some tightening of their own, putting up mortgage rates and borrowing costs.”

SIMON WARD | HENDERSON
“Hold rates and suspend gilt purchases. The inflation forecast that formed the basis for QE2 is being confirmed as too optimistic, while the economy is regaining momentum, as foreshadowed by monetary improvements that predated the policy.”

GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
"Hold policy. With the current round of asset purchases to be completed next month and new economic forecasts to be published, it makes sense to sit tight before making a more informed decision on quantitative easing in May.”

VICKY PRYCE | FTI CONSULTING
“Hold rates and quantitative easing – inflation is heading in the right direction despite higher oil prices. Although there has been better UK growth data for the first quarter, that could go into reverse as the Eurozone seems to be moving into recession.”

SAMUEL TOMBS | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“Complete the current tranche of QE. While the economy might have narrowly avoided a recession, we can hardly say the recovery is back on track. And while inflation is showing signs of ‘stickiness’, weak pay and credit growth suggests that it will fall to a very low rate in time.”

TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS TSB
“Although the economy is showing signs of recovery, it remains extremely weak and fragile. With unemployment rising and output some four per cent below its 2008 peak, ultra loose policy is still required – hold policy for now, though further QE seems likely.”

HOLGER SCHMIEDING | BERENBERG BANK
“Hold. Recent data has been mixed, for instance with a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP but a rise in the manufacturing PMI in March, while inflation pressures continue to recede modestly. We can afford to wait until the next meeting before considering more QE.”

ROSS WALKER | RBS
“The asset purchases announced in February have still to be completed so there is no need to expand QE at this stage. Evidence of an underlying, broad-based improvement in the macroeconomic data also weighs in favour of unchanged policy settings in April.”

GRAEME LEACH | IOD
“Hold rates and QE. Over the last three months the economy has moved out of A&E but it is still heavily dependent on unorthodox medicine such as QE2. It is too early to contemplate QE3 but money supply growth remains far too weak and needs to accelerate.”