Cheltenham Festival Trading Strategy

I got food poisoning over Christmas because my mother got her timings muddled up when it came to cooking the stuffing. Funnily enough, I got my timings muddled up a few days later by not locking in a profit on Double Dizzy as it jumped the last at Cheltenham with a clear lead and then treaded water up the hill.

Over the coming weeks, this column will flag up a number of trading opportunities at this year’s festival. We will look to back one at a decent price and then look to lock-in a profit in-running come March.

The first trading opportunity is Noel Meade’s Go Native in the Champion Hurdle. Last year’s Supreme Novices’ winner looks cracking value at 7.5 on Betdaq for all the reasons highlighted opposite. However, the sensible trade will be to lay back our stakes and more in-running as our selection arrives at the last full of running. The key is to make a profit and not have to find out whether our selection will actually go through with his effort and win the race.

I expect Go Native to trade at possibly as short as even money approaching the last flight, which is exactly the time to hit the escape button. If you have 10pts to win on Go Native now, you should aim to try and lay back 40pts at evens in-running. That means if he wins the race you would make a 35 point profit and if he loses, you would still make 30 points.

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