Chelsea too big at 5/6 on home turf

THE highlight of the Premier League weekend is Liverpool’s trip to Stamford Bridge on Sunday. The Reds did the league double over Chelsea last season and will be feeling confident having gone unbeaten since their 4-0 defeat at White Hart Lane in mid-September.

Kenny Dalglish’s side have won their last four away games across all competitions, but they have lost 13 of their past 24 away fixtures since the beginning of last season and have also been defeated in seven of their last 11 trips to top-six teams. Consistency has been an issue for Liverpool and they have failed to beat Swansea and Norwich in their last two home league matches.

Chelsea suffered an embarrassing defeat at home to Arsenal last month and that would have hurt Andre Villas-Boas. However, they bounced back at Blackburn a fortnight ago and they are generally very strong at Stamford Bridge.

Since 2009/10, the Blues have won 16 of 20 home games against top-half sides and 11 of those victories came by at least two goals. Only three teams have conceded more goals at home than Chelsea this season (Wolves, Blackburn and Bolton), but they’ve still managed to win four of five and I think they are too big at 5/6 with Ladbrokes.

The both teams to score market is interesting at 4/5, as is a potential buy of goals at 2.7 with Sporting Index, but I’ll stick with the outright bet on Chelsea.

Tomorrow afternoon’s lunchtime kick off sees Arsenal travel to Norwich to take on the Premier League new boys. The Canaries have made a solid start to life in the top flight and sit in a promising ninth position in the table.

They have conceded in all of their five games at Carrow Road, but have lost just the once, against West Brom in September. It is true that they haven’t had any severe tests at home yet and the Gunners are a best-priced 7/10 with Paddy Power to take the points. That does make some appeal, but the total goals market is potentially more profitable.

Paul Lambert's side's last three home games have all had three or more goals, with the last two producing a total of 10. Arsenal have won just once on their travels so far this campaign, but their last four away fixtures have yielded an astonishing 28 goals. Sporting Index quote goals at 3.1-3.3, which is very high, but I’m still going to be a buyer.

Swansea are unbeaten at the Liberty Stadium this season and they have conceded only one goal. However, tomorrow evening’s game against Manchester United is undoubtedly their most difficult assignment so far. The draw at around 4.2 on Betdaq is interesting, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the champions nick a one-nil victory.

The best betting option is to sell goals at 2.8 with Sporting Index, as three of the Swans’ five home matches this term have produced two or fewer goals, while United have scored just seven in their last six league games. There have also been no more than two goals scored in nine of the champions’ last 14 visits to promoted opponents.

POINTERS...
Chelsea at 5/6 with Ladbrokes

Buy goals in Norwich v Arsenal at 3.3 with Sporting Index

Sell goals in Swansea v Man United at 2.8 with Sporting Index