CHELSEA vs WIGAN
SUNDAY – 4.00PM SKY SPORTS
THE 2009/10 Premier League season has been full of drama, but it now looks almost certain that Chelsea will secure their first title for four years. We backed them pre-season at 21/10 with Boylesports, as well as buying their season points at 83.5 with Sporting Index. They are currently on 83 and it would be one of the biggest shocks English football has ever seen if Wigan manage to take anything from Sunday’s game.
In what has been a very exciting season, it is slightly disappointing to have so many short-priced favourites on the last day. Chelsea are 1/12 with William Hill to win this match, with Wigan as big as 25/1 and the draw 9/1. Some might see the latter two prices as decent value, seeing as Wigan have already beaten the Blues 3-1 this term, drew here two years ago and only lost by a one goal margin in both games last season. However, Carlo Ancelotti’s side have excelled at Stamford Bridge this campaign and with the Latics having nothing to play for, a comfortable home win looks assured.
Chelsea have won nine of their last 10 home games against bottom-half sides and eight of those have come by the HT / FT double result. They have also won 16 of 18 home matches this season, while Wigan have taken just 11 points from their 18 away games. Roberto Martinez’s men have also conceded first in nine of their last 10 away contests against Big Four teams and have lost 17 of their last 19 at the Big Four.
There is obviously no value in backing Chelsea at such a short price and the HT / FT result is pretty short at 4/9. A correct scoreline bet is very hard to call, so I’d prefer to focus on total goals and Chelsea’s winning margin in this one. There has been a minimum of three match goals in five of Wigan’s last six games and the Latics conceded two or more in all of those five.
Ancelotti’s side have scored 19 goals in their last four matches at Stamford Bridge, including two games where they netted seven. For punters who believe they can score seven again on Sunday, Boylesports are offering 12/1, which is too short for me. I will be buying goals at 3.7 with Sporting Index, though, and will also look to get with Chelsea in the supremacy market. Let’s hope they can end the season with a bang.
Buy match goals at 3.7 with Sporting Index
Buy Chelsea supremacy at 2.7 with Sporting Index
MANCHESTER UNITED vs STOKE
SUNDAY – 4.00PM SKY SPORTS
MANCHESTER UNITED are almost certain of a final day victory in the eyes of the layers, available at a best of 1/8 on Betdaq. As with Chelsea, there is plenty of evidence to support a home win but the price is still prohibitively short for most and we should look elsewhere for potentially more profitable bets.
All analysis points to a big win for United. Sir Alex Ferguson need not switch on the hairdryer to motivate his players – there’s no bigger motivation than knowing that with just 90 minutes more effort at the end of a nine-month slog a win will give them a chance of lifting the title.
Matthew Etherington’s 83rd minute goal at Fulham in the week was only the Potters’ 10th away goal of the season, the fewest of any team in the league. There is a necessity for United to keep it tight at the back as a Stoke goal would seriously damage their slim chances, so we can expect goals to be hard to come by for the visitors. Skybet offer 8/13 for United to win to nil which looks good value all things considered.
At the opposite end of the pitch there’s a chance for Wayne Rooney to cap a tremendous campaign and for one of the other forwards to up their claim as his strike partner for next season. Recently, United managed to put three past Tottenham and they will hope to do at least the same to a team that shipped seven to Chelsea just a fortnight ago.
Tony Pulis’ side have never scored against the Red Devils in the Premier League, but it’s Bettorlogic.com’s anaylsis which is most convincing of a big winning margin. United have won 14 of 15 games hosting middle-third teams this season with nine wins by at least three goals, while Stoke have been beaten by three or more in four of seven matches against Big Four teams. Buy United’s supremacy at 2.6 with Sporting Index.
Man Utd to win to nil at 8/13 with Skybet
Buy Man Utd supremacy at 2.6 with Sporting Index
HULL vs LIVERPOOL
SUNDAY – 4.00PM
BOTH of these sides have little to play for in the season finale, but with Rafa Benitez likely to leave this summer, you can be certain he will want to end his Liverpool career on a high. The Reds also have a chance of finishing sixth, if they win and Aston Villa fail to beat Blackburn, so they will be taking the game seriously.
Hull have been poor in recent weeks and you have to go back to March for their last victory. They have lost six of their last seven home games against the Big Four and five of those have come by the HT / FT double result. Liverpool have won five of their last eight away matches against bottom-six sides and beat the Tigers 6-1 at Anfield earlier in the season.
There has been an average of five goals per game in the three Premier League meetings between these sides and another high scoring encounter looks likely. Liverpool are quite short at 8/13 to win the game, but they can be backed at 29/20 with William Hill for the HT / FT result, so I’ll stick with that.
Liverpool HT / FT at 29/20 with William Hill
Buy match goals at 3 with Sporting Index
Football Trader Pre-Season Tips
Chelsea to win Premier League at 21/10
Buy Chelsea points at 83.5
Lay Man City w/o Big Four at 6/5
Portsmouth to be relegated at 2/1