My pick: Buy US dollar index at 90.30
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 5-10 days
The index has been in the process of consolidating for a good portion of the year with any rallies being well capped at just over 81. However, the consolidation has been bullish and therefore we would look for key resistance at 81.30 (its 2010 high) to be taken out over the coming sessions, in favour of a fresh upside move for the greenback. Buy at 81.40 with an objective of 84.40 and a stop at 78.40.
My pick: Short Dow below 10,650 and halve crude oil position
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day–1 week
Risk trends have advanced for weeks with very little fundamental momentum to speak of. However, sentiment seems to finally be running out of steam. This has put my crude oil position back in the money and I have therefore taken half of it off the table. Positioning for a potentially larger reversal in sentiment, I am waiting for the Dow to drop below 10,650 when I will take out a short position with a stop of 10,825 and 10,250 initial target.
My pick: Short crude oil pending a market move
Expertise: Global macro, classic technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 week – 6 months
Crude oil has fallen after a test of support-turned-resistance at a rising trendline set from the swing bottom in early February, and prices are now testing support in the $79.32-80.28 region. I will look for a break below to go short. The 21-day percent-change correlation between crude and the MSCI World Stock Index is 0.85, so fading risk appetite is supportive. Go short below $79.32 targeting $77.32 and a stop on a daily close above the wick high of the support-breaking candle.