My pick: Sell FTSE 100 at 5,560
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 5-10 days
The market rally over the past few days has been most impressive, with gains extending to levels not seen since September 2008. However, we would not yet adopt an overly bullish outlook. With the daily relative strength index reaching overbought levels, we instead favour looking to fade the rally at current levels in anticipation of a pullback. Sell the FTSE at 5,560 for a 5,380 objective and place a stop at 5,650.
My pick: Remain short 10-year German bund below 123.75 and short oil at $80
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day–1 week
We have experienced yet another week of inactivity but the slow biases behind the market push one way while the fundamentals are pushing the other. A reconciling will come soon and the result will be volatility. For now, I’m sticking with my existing positions. My bund short is now in the money but the crude short is causing discomfort. A break above $84 will prompt me to cut my short and maybe even go long.
My pick: Stay short gold at $1,136.15
Expertise: Global macro, classic technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 week-6 months
Last week, I sold gold at $1,136.15 as prices tested support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line drawn from the bottom in early February while a semi-annual survey revealed expectations for a US interest rates hike of 25-50 basis points within six months. As expected, this cut into inflation hedge demand, sending gold lower. I will hold short from here and move the stop to $1,119.44 – the 11 March wick high – to lock in some profit. Stay short of gold and target $1,088.13.