My pick: Stay short the S&P 500 on a hold of 1,130
Expertise: Algorithmic trading
Average time frame of trades: 2-10 weeks
I have remained bearish on the S&P 500 for quite some time now and I remain short. Unfortunately I added to the position below 1,050, which did not work well as the index rebounded. I have since covered half the position at a loss, but I am willing to hold the remainder as long as the index remains below 1,130. I feel confident that a deterioration in risk sentiment will produce further S&P declines in the coming months.
My pick: Remain long 10-year gilts and remain short US dollar-Swiss franc
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day-1 week
Risk appetite has cooled over the past week and my long position in the Dow has fallen back to my stop-loss level, which has knocked me out. Before I commit to any new trends, I need to see a clear theme in sentiment. As for my existing positions – long gilts from 121.25 and short US dollar-Swiss franc from SFr1.14 – I will hold on to both of these positions to see how the trends develop. My first target on my long gilt trade will be set at 123.
My pick: Short gold (pending market movement)
Expertise: Global macro, classic technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 week-6 months
Daily charts show that gold prices have formed a bearish rising wedge pattern below resistance at $1,260, with the downward bias reinforced by clear negative divergence on 14-day relative strength studies. If resistance levels at $1,240 turn to support, this will be confirmation of a breakdown in the gold price. I will look for a daily close below this level before I go short, initially targeting $1,175. If triggered, I will put in place a stop-loss at $1,264.70, the session high reached on 21 June.