CARBON emissions will continue to rise over the next 20 years, with measures to reduce climate change outstripped by increased energy demand from emerging economies, according to analysis by BP.
The oil major predicted yesterday that global demand for fuel is likely to grow by nearly 40 per cent by 2030, with 93 per cent of the growth coming from non-OECD countries.
Non-OECD energy consumption will be 68 per cent higher by 2030, averaging 2.6 per cent per year growth.
It expects non-fossil fuels, such as nuclear, hydro-electricity and renewable sources to make up 18 per cent of energy growth in the next 20 years, but predicts fossil fuels will still make up 64 per cent of the global increase.
Chief executive Bob Dudley said of BP’s forecasts: “Our base case assumes that countries continue to make some progress on addressing climate change, based on the current and expected level of political commitment. But overall, for me personally, it is a wake-up call.”
BP, which last week announced an exploration project in Arctic Russia, has made public its annual Energy Outlook for the first time this year.
It predicts modest growth for fuels outside the control of the OPEC oil cartel, mostly led by a large increase in biofuels and experimental oil sources such as the Canadian sand deposits.
Coal, oil and gas will each make up around 27 per cent of the market by 2030, BP said, taking over from oil’s current solo dominance.
OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for nine per cent of global transport fuels.
“We are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions. But that doesn’t mean we oppose such progress,” said Dudley.
BP said world primary energy demand growth will average 1.7 per cent per year from 2010 to 2030, decelerating slightly beyond 2020.
ExxonMobil is due to release its long-term energy outlook in the coming weeks, and is expected to paint a similarly gloomy picture about cutting global emissions.