Ahead of an investor day, Evolution believes BNP shares are very cheap after it played a blinder with the acquisition of Fortis. Evo values Fortis at €22bn, while BNP paid just €6.5bn for 75 per cent. It expects the Belgium retail market to offer exceptional profitability as rivals give up market share due to the European Commission.

Collins Stewart believes the shares have room to move upwards, even taking into account asset risks and competitive reinsurance markets. It leaves its forecast of a five per cent decline in top-line earnings in 2010 unchanged, with volume pressure from competitors’ recovery offset by M&A and improved margins on large capacity lines.

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