Analysts predict upward shift in GDP revisions

Ben Southwood
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REVISIONS to GDP due on Friday will show that output shrank more slowly than previously thought, and perhaps even grew slightly over the second quarter, economic analysts have predicted.

Friday’s revision will reveal a fall of 0.5 per cent in the UK’s GDP over the second quarter, predicted Goldman Sachs’ economics team, below the original 0.7 per cent dip.

Three datasets published since the original figures feed into this more positive expectation. Industrial production fell by 0.9 per cent over the quarter, rather than 1.3 per cent as originally believed, while construction output and retail sales were also revised up.

Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics went further, proposing that the underlying picture might even be positive when taking into account the extra bank holiday.