ANALYST VIEWS: WILL CONFIDENCE BOUNCE BACK SOON?

 
Tim Wallace
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SAMUEL TOMBS | CAPITAL ECON
“No - conditions may be deteriorating further. We expect figures from surveys like the CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey, which comes out in the UK tomorrow, to maintain the gloomy tone. And while August’s household borrowing figures, released this Thursday, may reveal a rise in mortgage approvals, we predict a fall in overall lending. Confidence is down in the Eurozone, too, and is set to decline further.”

CHRIS WILLIAMSON | MARKIT
“US consumers are under pressure too, and the world’s largest economy is barely growing. In terms of expectations, the consensus is for GDP to show a 1.2 per cent quarterly annualised increase, while personal income and spending are likely to register almost no growth. House prices look set to remain four to five per cent down on a year ago and new home sales to have fallen for the fourth month in a row.”

HOWARD ARCHER | IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
“It is likely that UK consumers will be even more careful in their spending as already weak confidence is hit by heightened concerns over the economy, jobs and financial market turmoil. Furthermore, the serious squeeze on consumers’ purchasing power is continuing as they face elevated inflation and muted wage growth. Indeed, consumer price inflation climbed to 4.5 per cent in August and is likely to move higher still in the near term due to rising utility prices. The only good news for consumers is that the Bank of England is not going to raise interest rates for some time.”