Analyst picks for 27 November 2012

CURRENCY STRATEGIST
CHRIS VECCHIO

My pick: Long dollar-yen and gold
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: A few hours to a few days

I closed my long Aussie-dollar position from $1.0318 at $1.0390, for a profit of +72-pips. I also closed my euro-dollar long position from $1.2720 at $1.2790 for a profit of +70-pips. Although both of these positions overran their targets in the ensuing days, there’s little reason to talk about hypothetical trading scenarios. Currently, I’m only long on dollar-yen from ¥80.65 (although I maintain my long gold position from $1705.00.)

STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK

My pick: Stay short euro-dollar and Aussie-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months

I sold euro-dollar at $1.2982 on 31 October, after prices broke rising trend line support, hinting that long-term euro decline was to resume. Prices recovered from the $1.2700 figure, but the overall set-up remains intact. I expect debt crisis woes to push the pair to my initial objective at $1.2619. I sold Aussie-dollar on 15 November at $1.0381, seeing a bearish trend shift in the S&P 500 as likely to sink the risk-geared Aussie. I will also continue to hold this trade, aiming for $1.0181.

CHIEF STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER

My pick: Short Kiwi-dollar and Aussie-Kiwi, long Loonie-yen
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

My long euro-yen (¥104.50) and dollar-yen (¥79.15) picks from last week worked well. That said, the yen tumbled too quickly and the Japanese election is still a while away. If there is a pullback, I like a Loonie-yen long from its former wedge resistance (¥81.50). I will keep my set-up for a risk-neutral technical break for Aussie-Kiwi below the NZ$1.2700 pivot. As a risk play, I like Kiwi-dollar at the former $0.8175 channel floor, with a stop above $0.8300.