Analyst picks


My pick: Long euro-dollar through Thursday, long dollar (pending)
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: A few hours to a few weeks

I prefer the euro-dollar long above $1.2930, especially ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting this Thursday, as the implementation of negative rates is highly unlikely. As such, mid-April swing highs near $1.3200 are in focus. Euro strength against the dollar could be short-lived if non-farm payrolls maintain their three-month average of jobs growth of more than 200,000. Accordingly, I’m looking to buy the dollar on Friday after expected weakness over the course of the week.


My pick: Stay long euro-sterling
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months

I booked profits on short sterling-dollar, amid technical signs of a broad downward correction in the dollar. I entered a euro-sterling long position at £0.8546, to maintain exposure to Bank of England stimulus speculation ahead of Mark Carney’s entry as governor. Prices completed a large triangle bullish continuation chart pattern, bolstering the case for an upside scenario. A break above resistance of £0.8575 will expose the initial target at £0.8648. A stop-loss will be triggered on a close below £0.8494.


My pick: Short euro-sterling and euro-yen, long Aussie-dollar
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

There are still whispers of the pain that would result from a Fed “taper”, but the market hasn’t turned to full-blown risk aversion just yet. If that panic button is pushed, there are many options; but I’m most interested in a euro-yen reversal on a ¥130 break. If risk holds, the dollar will be at risk. An Aussie-dollar trend reversal back above $0.9750 carries classic oversold readings. And, for non-risk, a euro-sterling range break below £0.8535 looks appealing.