Analyst picks

CURRENCY STRATEGIST
CHRIS VECCHIO

My pick: Long euro-dollar through Thursday, long dollar (pending)
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: A few hours to a few weeks

I prefer the euro-dollar long above $1.2930, especially ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting this Thursday, as the implementation of negative rates is highly unlikely. As such, mid-April swing highs near $1.3200 are in focus. Euro strength against the dollar could be short-lived if non-farm payrolls maintain their three-month average of jobs growth of more than 200,000. Accordingly, I’m looking to buy the dollar on Friday after expected weakness over the course of the week.

STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK

My pick: Stay long euro-sterling
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months

I booked profits on short sterling-dollar, amid technical signs of a broad downward correction in the dollar. I entered a euro-sterling long position at £0.8546, to maintain exposure to Bank of England stimulus speculation ahead of Mark Carney’s entry as governor. Prices completed a large triangle bullish continuation chart pattern, bolstering the case for an upside scenario. A break above resistance of £0.8575 will expose the initial target at £0.8648. A stop-loss will be triggered on a close below £0.8494.

CHIEF STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER

My pick: Short euro-sterling and euro-yen, long Aussie-dollar
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

There are still whispers of the pain that would result from a Fed “taper”, but the market hasn’t turned to full-blown risk aversion just yet. If that panic button is pushed, there are many options; but I’m most interested in a euro-yen reversal on a ¥130 break. If risk holds, the dollar will be at risk. An Aussie-dollar trend reversal back above $0.9750 carries classic oversold readings. And, for non-risk, a euro-sterling range break below £0.8535 looks appealing.