Analyst picks for 11 June 2012


My pick: Long euro-dollar at €1.246, stop on close below €1.240
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

This past week was rather constructive for the euro, in light of intense selling in previous weeks. A break of a sequence of four consecutive weekly lower lows and lower tops encourages prospects for a more corrective upside this week. We took advantage of an oversold hourly move on Friday and entered a fresh long position. We will look for the rally to extend towards the €1.2800 area before considering bearish resumption.


My pick: Stay short euro-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months

I sold euro-dollar on 8 May at €1.3004. The pair has declined and I’ve since revised my target to €1.2244 and trailed the stop to trigger on a daily close above €1.2674. Prices bounced over the past week, as hopes for a third round of Fed quantitative easing returned after a dismal May jobs report, and as Spain secured €100bn (£80.6bn) in bailout cash to recapitalise its banks. The move appears corrective and I will remain short, looking for debt crisis jitters to return before the Greek election on 17 June.


My pick: Short sterling-dollar, long euro-Swissie and loonie-Swissie
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week

This week looks like it will be something of a transition period for risk trends. In the final two weeks of the month we will have bigger events to tap the crisis/stimulus balance. But before that, we have speculation. As such, I still like the volatile potential of long support for sterling-dollar below £1.5250 as my risk play. Otherwise, my long Canadian dollar-Swissie has a low risk correlation and the euro-Swissie long awaits Swiss National Bank desperation.