My pick: Sell Aussie dollar-dollar
Expertise: System Trading
Average time frame of trades: 2 to 10 weeks
I think the Aussie dollar and other “high-Beta” currencies have turned lower against the safe-haven US currency. Volatility has surged, and the Aussie dollar tends to do poorly in such conditions. We also see retail trading crowds buying aggressively into declines, as our proprietary data shows more than four traders long Aussie dollar-dollar for every one short. I’d like to sell the Aussie dollar breakdown with a stop above month-to-date highs.
My pick: Short euro-Swedish krona and sterling-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months
I sold euro-krona at Kr8.7315, expecting Riksbank to keep rates on hold while the European Central Bank leans toward easing in 2013. My revised target of Kr8.4150 has now been overcome and I will aim for a break of Kr8.3616 to expose Kr8.3193. I also sold sterling-dollar $1.5662 as prices broke multi-year trend line support set from early 2009. My third objective at $1.5132 has been overcome and I will look for a push below $1.4964-1.50 from here.
My pick: Short dollar-yen and Kiwi dollar-dollar
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
Volatility is still lacking a common trend. My euro-yen short below ¥122 was good for a quick move while the dollar-yen short below ¥92.00 dried up quickly. On risk aversion, the yen crosses are still exposed; so I will scout dollar-yen again below ¥91. Meanwhile, I like the bearish wedge break from Kiwi dollar-dollar and will stay short from $0.8275. New to the mix, an inverse head-and-shoulders from sterling-Kiwi dollar should we break above $1.8400.