Investment banks suffering as bond trading revenues fall again

 
Tim Wallace
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THE WORLD’S biggest banks are taking a beating from diving bond trading revenues, analysts at JP Morgan warned yesterday.

Revenues in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) trading are set to fall by another 19 per cent in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year. And compared with the same period of 2013, revenues are down 10 per cent.

A falling bond market has hurt the sector so far this year, and JP Morgan analyst Kian Abouhossein expects a lack of volatility in rates and foreign exchange products to hurt volumes this quarter.

By contrast the analysts see equities revenues falling only eight per cent on the quarter.

Similarly it expects other investment banking revenues to fall six per cent on the quarter, as rising equity and debt capital markets revenues partially offset a fall in mergers and acquisitions.

As a result JP Morgan sees UBS as the strongest investment bank as it is more focused on equities than FICC, with Goldman Sachs at the bottom of its rankings.

But it has still cut its earnings per share forecasts across the board, with one per cent downgrades at Barclays up to three per cent for Credit Suisse.