My pick: Short euro basket
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: A few hours to a few weeks
At the current juncture, the ECB has now enhanced its forward guidance with the promise of more dovish policy action in June. The problem is that, if the ECB does not do anything, it stands to lose a fair amount of credibility; the likelihood that the euro would rally sharply in the wake of inaction is the most likely outcome in light of recent history. Implicitly, the ECB now has no choice but to act. While more ECB jawboning wouldn’t be enough to explicitly provoke a bearish bias in the euro, the technical damage being done across the euro spectrum (euro-Aussie, euro-yen, euro-dollar) suggests that a more significant top in the euro could be about to trigger.