My pick: Stay short euro-Aussie, short euro-dollar
Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: A few hours to a few weeks
Over the past five years, April has been the worst month of the year for the US dollar, and 2014 has proven no different. Down by 0.3 per cent to 0.9 per cent versus the Aussie, sterling, the euro, and the yen, the buck’s stumble in the fourth month of the year is related to a string of disappointing data. In fact, the Citi Economic Surprise Index fell to -45.9 on 7 April, its lowest level of the year, in the wake of the disappointing March nonfarm payrolls report. Hope may have been born again, after a series of improved consumption and inflation reports; the same surprise index has rebounded to -26.3. If dollar strength is to re-emerge, the rebound in data will need to gather pace and push up US yields once more.