BP forecasts shale boom will transform the energy market

Suzie Neuwirth
AL e

AL energy consumption will rise by 41 per cent by 2035, with 95 per cent of that growth in demand coming from emerging markets, research from oil major BP predicted yesterday.

But energy use in developed markets is expected to grow very slowly and will begin to decline in the later years of the forecast period, according to the BP Energy Outlook 2035.

World oil demand will rise to 109m barrels per day (bpd) by 2035, up 19m bpd and led by China, India and the Middle East. Even so, oil is expected to be the slowest growing of the major fuels, while renewables are predicted to grow the fastest.

The research also said that the US will become energy self-sufficient by 2035, as the shale boom allows it to surpass a previous 1970 peak in oil output, and as its gas supply gradually rises.

BP expects Russia and South America to contribute about 1m bpd of shale oil each by 2035.