City A.M. shadow MPC votes 7-2 to hold again

ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.
“Lift rates by 0.25 per cent. Business surveys are heating up and some economists expect one per cent GDP growth in the final quarter of the year – this is no time for emergency all-time-low interest rates. Furthermore, the situation with the housing market, expecially in London, is worrying.”

GRAEME LEACH | INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS
“No change in quantitative easing (QE) or base rates. The UK economy is warming up but the temperature needs to rise further before we tighten monetary policy.”

GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
“No change. With guidance in operation and inflation down, a tightening seems some way off at the moment. If the recovery continues apace then a rate hike could come in 18-24 months.”

SAMUEL TOMBS | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“No change. There’s still no pressing need to raise interest rates soon. Inflation has eased, while the Bank can pull some macroprudential levers if the housing market needs to be cooled.”

ROBERT WOOD | BERENBERG BANK
“No change. Policy is working, driving above trend growth that we expect to broaden out to business investment and rising pay next year. Yet there are nearly 1m more jobless than in 2007.”

SIMON WARD | HENDERSON
“Quarter-point rise with bias towards more. Low rates are distortionary and cannot be offset by macroprudential tinkering. Signals suggest consumption growing strongly in early 2014.”

VICKY PRYCE | EX GOVERNMENT ADVISER
“Hold. Upswing in manufacturing and better unemployment figures need to be set against still depressed wages and investment and the fragility of the international recovery.”

TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS BANK
“Rates should stay on hold and QE unchanged. Inflation is falling back, the level of GDP is still some 2.5 per cent below its 2008 peak and uncertainties remain about the 2014 outlook.”

ROSS WALKER | RBS
“No change. However, the case for withdrawing monetary policy stimulus is strengthening, not least to counter any unwarranted re-leveraging by the household sector.”